Over/Under Previewing the Blue Jays Outfield using ZiPS projections

In part two of previewing the Blue Jays season we are looking at the outfielders and their ZiPS projections. You can find part one of this series on the infielders here.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Games
AVG
OBP
SLG
wOBA
wRC+
WAR

126
.272
.311
.492
.333
107
1.7

Gurriel Jr.’s offensive profile is that of a boom or bust. He’s a free swinger, who always ranks near the top of the league in chase rate. This approach works for him because he has the bat control to hit those pitches and drive them. This gives Gurriel Jr. a high BABIP which helps him make up for relatively few walks. Gurriel to his credit has improved his walk rate. Gurriel crushes off-speed pitches but what’s concerning is his struggles with fastballs. Over the past two seasons against all fastballs, Gurriel Jr. has a .329 wOBA, per Baseball Savant. That ranks 237th out of 291 hitters who saw at least 1500 pitches. Against hard fastballs it was even worse. Gurriel Jr. had just a .189 wOBA against fastballs thrown 95 mph or harder over the past two seasons which was the fifth lowest in the league. I am going to take the under on his projections, as I think pitchers will …

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Author: Paul Berthelot / Blue Jays Nation

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