As the NHL season quickly progresses, we find ourselves already at game #12 tonight for the Maple Leafs, and we are just crossing the precipice of having enough data to semi-accurately predict future results, at least when it comes to the basic counting stats.
Research has shown that Corsi can predict the win % of teams, using even a pretty small sample such as 20 games played. The key point from the linked article from JLikens in the early-ish days of blogging about shot attempt analysis (2011) is the following two points:
Corsi Tied is the best predictor of how a team will perform over the remainder of its schedule, regardless of the point in the schedule at which the calculation occurs.
Corsi Tied is only marginally more predictive of future success than goal ratio or winning percentage when looking at samples of 60 games or more.
So, in the early parts of the season like right now, Corsi is at it’s most valuable in terms of predictivity relative to more basic metrics like Win % or goal differential.
The above article talks about “Corsi Tied”, which was an early, simple way of eliminating what we call “score effects”. Score effects are basically: as the …
Author: Ryan Hobart / The Leafs Nation