Dissecting the Leafs rumoured interest in Tyler Myers

Dissecting the Leafs rumoured interest in Tyler Myers

Few things are more troublesome than hearing that the team you cheer for is kicking tires on Tyler Myers. Unfortunately for Leafs fans, that’s exactly what Bruce Garrioch reported this week:
There’s also been talk the Vancouver Canucks are willing to move defenceman Tyler Myers and the Leafs have been among the teams kicking tires there.
Now it’s very easy to yell “HELLS NO” and run off screaming into the horizon, but we’ll go a little bit further in our analysis than that, despite the fact that this clearly looks like a bad idea.
Let’s start with the well established reasons of why this isn’t a good idea. Tyler Myers has an AAV of $6M for not only this season, but next. There is also the issue of despite being listed as a defenseman, very little defense seems to happen when Tyler Myers is on the ice, and goaltenders tend to get shelled. His Evolving Hockey player card put him in the bottom 11th percentile of players in the league, and his RAPM charts very rarely show any blue. His rate stats are modestly better than that, and speak to the Canucks getting shelled with Myers on the ice, but not necessarily seeing puck go in a ridiculous amount as a result of that. I guess that’s something…
Season
GP
TOI/GP
CA/60
CF%
GA/60
GF%
xGA/60
xG%
HDCA/60
HDCF%
PDO
20212022
82
18.31
58.63
49.15
2.16
53.85
2.60
49.39
11.39
47.61
1.013
20222023
14
18.34


Read More

Author: Jon Steitzer / The Leafs Nation

News and Notes: Blue Jays don’t tender three players, looking at other team’s non-tenders, and more!

On Friday evening, the Jays announced that three players would not be offered a contract, while every other arbitration-eligible player was tendered.

Non-tending Bradley Zimmer and Raimel Tapia were expected, as they had been designated for assignment off the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 deadline. However, non-tendering Vinny Capra came as a shock in all honesty.
While Capra has very little major league experience, he slashed .283/.378/.403 with five homers in 222 plate appearances with the Buffalo Bisons. He also had as many walks (29) as strikeouts and finished 2022 with a 114 wRC+.

Vinny Capra freezes the left fielder with this nuke.#BlueJays #NextLevel pic.twitter.com/mhaIhOuhpZ
— Brennan Delaney (@Brennan_L_D) September 8, 2022

While the Jays will need to make cuts to the 40-man roster before signing players, I figured there were more obvious subtractions from the 40-man. No doubt Capra will bounce back quickly (he’s heading to Estrellas in the Dominican Winter League), and I reckon we’ll see him in the majors at some point.
There are 11 Blue Jays who’ll be receiving contracts from the team, they are listed below, along with their projections according to MLB Trade Rumors.:
RP Adam Cimber, $3.2 million
RP Trevor Richards, $1.5 million
RP Tim Mayza, $1.9 million
RP Trent Thornton, $1.1 million
RP Jordan Romano, $4.4 million
RP Erik Swanson, $1.4 million
C Danny Jansen, $3.7 million
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., $14.8 million
UTL Cavan Biggio, $2.6 million
SS Bo Bichette, $6.1 million
2B Santiago Espinal, $2.1 million
The two names that may be surprising are Trent Thornton and Trevor Richards. Let’s start with Richards.
Trevor Richards:
The 29-year-old had a 5.34 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 64 innings pitched in 2022. While he struggled with a high walk rate (12.5 BB%) like he never has in his career, his 29.2 K% was one of the highest on the Blue Jays with more than 15 innings pitched. Surprisingly, only Jeremy Beasley had a higher K% (29.7%) than Richards with for pitchers with 15+ …

Read More

Author: Brennan Delaney / Blue Jays Nation

Spending the Leafs LTIR cap relief on defense: Rumours

Spending the Leafs LTIR cap relief on defense: Rumours

It’s not yet confirmed that Jake Muzzin is out for the year, but the media (ourselves included) have decided to start spending the cap relief money for Kyle Dubas even though he hasn’t asked anyone to. It’s important to note that some of that cap relief will already be spent thanks to the Leafs always being a little bit over the cap without LTIR this year, but the Leafs are still likely looking at an easy path to $4.5M of available relief using a 21 player roster, or if they wanted to waive Justin Holl and go with a 20 player roster the Leafs would have the full $5.6M of cap relief from Muzzin at their disposal. This is all before considering salary retention or sending money/players out in the trade as well. Basically, it seems like any player is fair game at the moment for the Leafs and that’s a dangerous way to let this market think.
Frank Seravalli suggests six defensemen for the Leafs…
In his article yesterday at DFO, Frank suggested the following six defensemen as replacements for Jake Muzzin:
John Klingberg
Vladislav Gavrikov
Matt Roy
Carson Soucy
Nick Jensen
Dmitri Orlov
Matt Dumba as an honourable mention
I’m going to start off by saying I’d much rather see the Leafs take the Muzzin cap relief and put it toward a high end forward, but since Frank is looking at defensemen that’s what we’ll talk about here.
John Klingberg is following up an underwhelming year with a bad start to …

Read More

Author: Jon Steitzer / The Leafs Nation

Checking in on Blue Jays players playing in the Dominican Winter League

The great thing about baseball is that it’s a year round sport, even if Major League Baseball ends in a week.

The Dominican Winter League (LIDOM) and Mexican Pacific Winter League are in full swing now, so how are Jays players doing for their respective teams? Let’s look at a former top 100 prospect to begin.
Nate Pearson:
After pitching in the big leagues in 2020 and 2021, Nate Pearson missed all of the 2022 season. First by contracting mononucleosis, then suffering a lat strain in a rehab game. The story of his career thus far has been injuries, but unlucky injuries. No better example of this than getting hit with a comebacker at the start of the 2018 minor league season, which broke his ulna (forearm).
To get innings, Pearson headed to the Dominican Republic to play for the Tigres de Licey. In his five innings, he hasn’t allowed an earned run, while owning a 25 K% and a 6.25 BB%. Pearson has been used mainly as a high-leverage reliever which is a good sign.
I think as the years go by, his ceiling leans more toward a high-leverage reliever, rather than a starter or a bulk reliever. Although some may argue that Pearson becoming a reliever may “lessen” his value, having a guy throwing 100 mph out of the bullpen is super important.
It will be interesting to see the organization’s plan for the 26-year-old righty heading into his eighth season with the team.
Rainer Nunez:
Rainer Nunez is the only other Blue …

Read More

Author: Brennan Delaney / Blue Jays Nation

Leafs season from Holl

It brings me no joy to report that a one time ECHL reclamation project turned top four defenseman has taken a tour for the worse. I was an early adopter of Justin Holl fandom and it seemed like Mike Babcock would rob us of a good time. Sheldon Keefe gave Holl his opportunity and for one glorious season alongside Jake Muzzin it looked like the good times were never going to end.
Last season was a step back from Holl. The fact that Muzzin also took a step back or was absent due to injury often meant straining what could be achieved by Holl, but he still looked like a capable bottom pairing defenseman who was just being asked to punch above his weight class and fill in on the second pairing due to injuries. This year… well this year has been a mess.
Season
GP
TOI/GP
CA/60
CF%
GA/60
GF%
xGA/60
xG%
HDCA/60
HDCF%
PDO
20192020
68
15.92
54.76
51.80
2.44
51.65
2.30
53.00
10.97
51.71
0.998
20202021
55
17.60
53.13
49.85
2.54
53.93
2.11
54.51
9.30
55.49
1.010
20212022
69
16.90
54.17
52.22
2.73
51.82
2.37
54.69
10.19
57.33
1.003
20222023
9
16.61
58.21
50.51
2.41
40.00
3.07
43.83
16.46
35.94
0.969
Most notably with Holl’s numbers you can see the spikes in shot attempts against, especially those in high danger areas, and as a result there has been a significant impact on the expected goals against, which tell an interesting story compared to the goals against. It truly could be a lot worse, but the low GF% also speaks to the Leafs not producing offensively with Holl on the ice either. That’s a definite red flag for a defensemen the Leafs have needed to deploy in their top four due to Liljegren’s injury to start the season.

(red dots mean negative for/against differentials and all data is sourced from Natural Stat Trick)
Holl has struggled in the majority of his games this season. He had a strong outing against Washington, and statistically it wasn’t a bad night against San Jose, although the eye test would certainly disagree with the numbers, as Sheldon Keefe had to address Holl’s performance following the game…

Sheldon Keefe on Holl: “Justin likes really direct & honest feedback. We’ve given him that. Certainly, a little more direct here today because it’s been snowballing …” pic.twitter.com/BNsGoRnaaX
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) October 28, 2022

Last night did not help Holl’s cause and while the reality is he’s safe fo …

Read More

Author: Jon Steitzer / The Leafs Nation

James Reimer is a Plan B worth considering for the Maple Leafs

James Reimer is a Plan B worth considering for the Maple Leafs

February 23rd, 2016 — do you remember that day in Maple Leafs history?
That was the final game in which James Reimer wore the blue and white for Toronto. A loss against the Nashville Predators, where he allowed three goals on 26 shots.
Four days later, he was traded to the San Jose Sharks along with Jeremy Morin in exchange for Ben Smith, Alex Stalock, and a conditional fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft. Now, six years after that trade, there’s still a chance that Reimer returns to the Maple Leafs’ crease.
A long shot, yes. The possibility, though, still remains.
When Toronto brought in Petr Mrazek last season, there were plenty of question marks about his health, and certainly so. Then, after an injury-filled season, the 30-year-old netminder was shipped to Chicago during the 2022 NHL Draft.
This year, we’re starting to ask the same injury questions about Matt Murray, who suffered an adductor injury and then was placed on LTIR on October 15th. There’s a lot of season left, so it’s always possible that Murray returns and stays healthy, however, the risk is still apparent.
Once Mrazek’s injuries became more concerning, there was a lot of talk surrounding the Maple Leafs and a potential goalie trade. It almost came to fruition …

Read More

Author: Nick Barden / The Leafs Nation

Unlucky Pierre: A slow start for Engvall hurts the Leafs

Unlucky Pierre: A slow start for Engvall hurts the Leafs

It’s pretty early but it’s safe to say that an 87.9 PDO is ungood. Welcome to the first six games of Pierre Engvall’s season. On a team that hasn’t been performing up to standard to start the year, Engvall’s 85% on-ice save percentage and 2.79% on-ice shooting percentage combine to be the team’s worst PDO, slightly behind fellow bottom sixers like Zach Aston-Reese and Nic Aube-Kubel. It would seem that neither Engvall nor Aston-Reese are thriving in the suppression setting and need to drive the puck up the ice a bit more than the Leafs have been trying to do with them on the ice.
The things that you’d hope to see Engvall doing well, he still seems to be doing. When you look at the shot attempts against when he’s on the ice, his CA/60 is 51.37, one of the better results on the Leafs, but it’s the quality of those chances that have been concerning as his scoring chance against, expected goals against, and high danger shot attempts against rates are all towards the middle of the pack for the Leafs, leading to his goals against rate being one of the worst on the Leafs.
With dwindling offensive opportunities, Engvall’s “for” percentages have …

Read More

Author: Jon Steitzer / The Leafs Nation

The Leafs need to improve their mentality to become tough by committee

The Leafs need to improve their mentality to become tough by committee

When it comes to the playstyle of the Leafs, one thing that consistently gets brought up in terms of an area of weakness is the lack of the team being tough to play against.
Meaning that players on the Leafs can be cross-checked, high-sticked, or slashed and their teammates will not put up much resistance to let the opposition know that they won’t get off scot-free.
It is true that the Leafs are among the leaders in hits to begin the 2022-23 season as they currently sit third with 149 behind only the Predators and Capitals. Much of that has to do with new additions like Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Zach Aston-Reese, and some of the mainstays like Rasmus Sandin and Auston Matthews.
It’s a good place to start, but dishing out hits is not the only thing that defines team toughness. A big part is sticking up for your guys when one of them gets hit or standing up for yourself. This is something that the Leafs have struggled with on a consistent basis for years and do not have enough players that instinctively stand up for themselves, support their teammates, and protect the crease to prevent the screen.
It is for this reason that you hear a significant portion of the fanbase complain about how the Leafs do not hav …

Read More

Author: Michael Mazzei / The Leafs Nation

Leafs offer up a present to the Habs in the season opener: Muzzy’s Muzings

Leafs offer up a present to the Habs in the season opener: Muzzy’s Muzings

The first of 82 is in the books.
And with that, rest assured, I have many thoughts to share on tonight’s game —especially after whatever the hell that was.
With that in mind, following most Leafs games this season, depending on when I want a night off to play NHL 23 or something, I’ll be offering my post-game thoughts/musings.
So, let’s get to it:

Leafs lose. Home opener tomorrow.
What needs to change for tomorrow? 👇 pic.twitter.com/IBPNW5v6Br
— The Leafs Nation (@TLNdc) October 13, 2022

 
Burlington native Josh Anderson notched the game winner with 19 seconds left in regulation as Toronto fell to Montreal, 4-3, in the season opener. The last five minutes of the game was comparable to the final call at your favourite establishment; frantic, wild, and unneeded. Sean Monahan gave the Canadiens a 3-2 lead with 2:30 remaining before William Nylander responded on a breakaway just 40 seconds later. That set the table for Anderson’s heroics; his 11th goal in 28 career outings against his hometown Maple Leafs. Also, shoutout to Cole Caufield. He was a monster potting two goals while mustering five shots on goal. The sniper now has 24 goals in 38 total games under Martin St. Louis.

Memo to NHL teams: If you really want to shut down Cole Caufield, hire Dominique Ducharme.
— Nick Alberga (@thegoldenmuzzy) October 13, 2022

 
Eight of the last 10 season openers between Toronto and Montreal have now been decided by one goal. The Canadiens have won four in a row against the Leafs at the Bell Centre.
Muzzy’s Muzings:

New year, same tea …

Read More

Author: Nick Alberga / The Leafs Nation

BJN Radio – Ep. 119: Dealing with heartbreak

What a strange movie that was.

After getting dominated in Game 1 of the wild-card series by Luis Castillo, the Blue Jays appeared to be running away with Game 2 as they tagged Robbie Ray and had an 8-1 lead in the sixth inning. But things went totally sideways after that, as the Mariners pulled off an epic rally to win the game 10-9 and take the series in a sweep.
We took a look back at the meltdown, where things went wrong, and why there’s no single person to put the blame on. We then looked ahead to the off-season and whether the front office will be prepared to make a big move over the winter.
You can listen to the episode here…
POINTSBET IS LIVE IN ONTARIO

Read More

Author: Cam Lewis / Blue Jays Nation