Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes in the Leafs roster, by counting stats

Welcome to Staturday, the column where we talk about stats on Saturday. Today, we’ll get into an overall look at last year’s team totals vs. what the 2021-22 roster did in 2020-21. Basically, we’re going to see if the Leafs should expect to have more or less of all of the basic counting stats. By doing so, we’ll see in what areas the 2021-22 roster should be better or worse than the 2020-21 roster.
I approached this same concept via the Goals Above Replacement model by Evolving Hockey in a previous Staturday column, so check that out here.
All of the stats below will be from Evolving Hockey, and will be at Even Strength, with no adjustments.
Last Year’s Leafs

Player
Season
Team
Position
GP
TOI
G
Points
iSF
iFF
iCF
ixG
Sh%
iBLK
GIVE
TAKE
iHF
iHA
iPEN±
FO±

Morgan Rielly
20-21
TOR
D
55
1078.95
4
21
74
109
160
3.61
5.41
54
64
18
60
132
-5
0

Tj Brodie
20-21
TOR
D
56
1053.38
1
11
40
62
96
1.58
2.5
75
45
19
28
99
0
0

Justin Holl
20-21
TOR
D
55
984.1
2
17
52
75
109
2.2
3.85
60
33
14
72
126
-1
0

Jake Muzzin
20-21
TOR
D
53
950.8
2
22
86
115
169
2.85
2.33
68
49
19
91
138
-5
0

Mitch Marner
20-21
TOR
C
55
904.07
17
47
108
143
195
11.6
15.74
34
53
42
19
45
-1
-1

Auston Matthews
20-21
TOR
C
52
889
30
49
167
225
260
18.11
17.96
40
42
40
56
57
7
34

John Tavares
20-21
TOR
C
56
831.3
12
33
119
155
196
12.8
10.08
27
49
30
44
75
9
62

William Nylander
20-21
TOR
C
51
697.93
11
27
100
137
167
11.37
11
15
33
29
12
61
1
2

Alex Kerfoot
20-21
TOR
C
56
674.1
6
18
59
77
100
6.41
10.17
28
25
14
38
115
3
-43

Ilya Mikheyev
20 …

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Author: Ryan Hobart / The Leafs Nation

Civil Discourse: What has your patience running thin about the Maple Leafs?

Civil Discourse: What has your patience running thin about the Maple Leafs?

Welcome to Civil Discourse, a new article series where two TLN writers discuss a topic of interest rationally without resorting to personal insults. So basically the anti-Twitter.
Mark Norman
We’ll get into discussing our own anxieties about this franchise in short order, but Dylan you saw the All or Nothing trailer, which depicted a clearly-upset Kyle Dubas uttering that now famous phrase “I don’t know what the **** is going to happen, my patience is running thin.” What was the first thing that popped into your head when he said that, and with more reflection upon it have you changed your answer?
Dylan Murphy
My initial reaction to hearing that line was “OK, this is actually going to be worth watching” and while typing up the news hit about the trailer and series release date, I thought about what Dubas could have been talking about. My hope is that that clip is from the final episode during exit meetings, but after some reflection, I think that expectations of the scene’s significance should be lowered because I’m thinking it’s more likely to be something related to the trade deadline, such as delays in getting the Nick Foligno …

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Author: Mark Norman / The Leafs Nation

Civil Discourse: The Maple Leafs’ new goaltending tandem

(Welcome to Civil Discourse, a new article series where two TLN writers discuss a topic of interest rationally without resorting to personal insults. So basically the anti-Twitter.)
Mark Norman
I know we’re here to talk about the Leafs goaltending going into this season, but I just wanted to briefly look back on Jack Campbell’s play last season. What stood out to you about Jack’s 2020-21 season?
Jori Negin-Shecter
I’m no technical goalie expert but Campbell’s emergence last year was really remarkable to watch from afar. His demeanour in the net was just so different from what Frederik Andersen had brought since he started struggling part way through the 19-20 season. Just the utmost composure even in the highest intensity spots. A fantastic playoff run. Campbell really looked the part of a starter in the National Hockey League. The only thing is that by going out and signing Petr Mrazek, Kyle Dubas clearly doesn’t seem to believe that statement.
Mark
I don’t seem to remember much in the way of bad goals being scored against Campbell last season. Every goalie obviously has goals they’d like back, such as Gallagher’s far-out wrister in …

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Author: Mark Norman / The Leafs Nation

Report from the Rock: News and notes for the upcoming Newfoundland Growlers season

Welcome to the first ever Report from the Rock, The Leafs Nation’s comprehensive coverage, news and notes about the Newfoundland Growlers, the ECHL affiliate of the Toronto Maple Leafs. I’ll be taking on the role of TLN’s chief Growlers correspondent for the upcoming season, and hope you’ll all follow along on this journey and enjoy the ride.
Two big pieces of news to touch on this time, so let’s dive right in.
On May 11th, just a few days before the Leafs embarked on the journey towards the most embarrassing playoff collapse in franchise history, the Newfoundland Growlers’ social media accounts announced a long-awaited update. The Newfoundland Growlers will end the longest offseason in history on October 21st against the Trois-Rivieres Lions, a new expansion team that has signed an agreement to become the Montreal Canadiens ECHL affiliate.
The full Growlers schedule for the 2021-22 season can be found here, but here’s a quick rundown of some of the highlights:
The Growlers will play a 72 game season that will feature 6 homestands of 6 games each. Many of these homestands will feature feature three games in three nights, so for any of you out in the …

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Author: Dylan Murphy / The Leafs Nation

Ilya Mikheyev has some work to do this offseason

Welcome to the TLN Year in Review series on the Leafs players. One by one we’ll go through the entire roster and assess what went right and what went wrong for each player last season and what we think the futre holds for them. Today’s article features souperman Ilya Mikheyev.
2020-21 Season Recap

Mikheyev is an interesting player to evaluate. On the one hand, he’s got speed to burn…

Yes, Mikheyev has got elite speed and an incredible work ethic too. But other than that, he doesn’t really bring much else.
For the season, Mikheyev recorded 17 points, only seven of which were goals. Funny enough, he attempted exactly 173 shots on goal in back-to-back seasons. Last season, that equates to just over four shot attempts per game (39 games). This season, just over three shot attempts per game (54 games). At first glance this might be a cause for concern. Dig a little deeper, and we find out that Mikheyev was buried in defensive zone starts this season. This lines up with the ideology from Sheldon Keefe of wanting to have a super shutdown third line. Mikheyev started a whopping 65.1% of his shifts in the defensive zone. The only …

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Author: Brendan Mori / The Leafs Nation

Around the NHL: Lou’s probably done more to hurt the Isles than help them

Welcome to Around the NHL, a new weekly column where I take a deep dive into non-Leafs topics, to give you a better look at other teams around the league. Whether it’s players, teams, or the whole league, the world is our oyster with this series, so let’s dive in.
After a second straight year of conference finals appearances from the Islanders and GM of the Year nominations for the man himself, the topic of whether the Leafs should have replaced Lou Lamoriello with Kyle Dubas has returned yet again, but the results make it harder and harder to argue that the Leafs made the right moves.
However, the process is a much different argument.
Now, I could write about how Lou was pretty bad in his tenure with the Leafs, especially when it came to turning the team into a contender, but instead I’m going to look at how he hasn’t really been a key cog to the Islanders success, as his trades and signings have probably hurt the team from being even better, while relying mostly on the successful systems of head coach Barry Trotz (who got ONE Jack Adams vote this year).
How …

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Author: Scott Maxwell / The Leafs Nation

John Tavares is an important Toronto Maple Leaf

Welcome to the TLN Year in Review series on the Leafs players. One by one we’ll go through the entire roster and assess what went right and what went wrong for each player last season and what we think the future holds for them. Today’s article features our captain, pajama boy, John Tavares.
Year three for John Tavares as a Toronto Maple Leaf was an interesting one. Coming off of a down year where Tavares recorded 20 goals and 60 points, there were many nights last season where Tavares would collect his points, but it felt like he wasn’t doing things that an 11 million dollar player should. This led to a lot of offseason discussion on whether or not Tavares was entering his decline faster than anticipated. You add this to the disappointing loss to Columbus in the bubble and you have unreasonable discussions of trading John Tavares.
2020-21 Season Recap
 

If you remember way back in January, Sheldon Keefe rolled out this top nine to start the season:
 

LW
C
RW

JOE THORNTON

AUSTON MATTHEWS

MITCH MARNER

JIMMY VESEY

JOHN TAVARES

WILLIAM NYLANDER

ILYA MIKHEYEV

ALEXANDER KERFOOT

ZACH HYMAN

The thinking was (at least when the team was …

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Author: Brendan Mori / The Leafs Nation

Mitch Marner is an incredible talent but we should absolutely be debating if he has a future with the Leafs

Welcome to the TLN Year in Review series on the Leafs players. One by one we’ll go through the entire roster and assess what went right and what went wrong for each player last season and what we think the futre holds for them. Rather than keep you all waiting for his name to come up at a random point, we’re starting off with a bang and going with a player that might be the most polarizing Leafs player at the moment, and rightfully so.
For three of the last four seasons Mitch Marner has been the Leafs leading scorer. He was on pace to finish with a career best regular season point total of 98 points, and have a legitimate shot at a 100 point season. After a 16 goal season last year, Marner worked on his shot and came back with 20 goals in 55 games this year. He’s received votes for the Lady Byng, Selke, and Allstar teams in the past, and this year, more than any other he has a legitimate shot at being named to either the first or second all-star team as he led all RW in points. Yes, there’s a lot to like about …

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Author: Jon Steitzer / The Leafs Nation

Page 6ix Wednesday, June 2nd: The Leafs lost, again, so let’s see what they have to say about it

 
Welcome to a grumpy special edition of Page 6ix: Locker room cleanout. For today’s column, your writer is feeling salty and therefore will just be dumping the Leafs locker room cleanout quotes in here and snarking about them.
 
I want to preface, though, with this:

As a Leafs fan I can withstand watching a lot of hard hockey things.
There is one thing I have no desire to ever watch and that is Jack Campbell crying in a post game presser after he was one of maybe four players who actually showed the fuck up for that series.
— Mer (@MerOutLoud) June 1, 2021

Alright, let’s do the thing.
First up is the captain John Tavares, and honestly there isn’t anything to snark on here because I’m just glad he’s doing better:

John Tavares: “Personally from the injury, I’m doing really well and continuing to progress. I feel very fortunate considering what I went through, the traumatic nature of the injury. I haven’t seen it myself, just seen a few images.”
— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) June 2, 2021

John Tavares on #Leafs end: “It’s really hard to put into context the disappointment, just the devastation of what this loss brings …

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Author: Mer / The Leafs Nation

TheLeafsNation Fantasy Gameday — So uh… game seven hey?

Welcome to TheLeafsNation Game Day where we take a look at today’s Leafs game and a few other things happening around the league all with daily fantasy in mind.

They didn’t do it in game five, but can the Leafs make it happen in game six? We’ll find out in a few long hours.
DraftKings has an offer for your first deposit! When you deposit $5 or more, you’ll get $15 in DraftKings dollars! Sign up and join in the action here.
The Matchup

Toronto
Montreal

Record
3-3
3-3

GF/GA
17-11
11-17

Power play %

14.3

11.1

Penalty kill %
88.9

85.7

CF%
52.12
47.88

xGF%
58.32
41.68

PDO
101.2
98.8

Goals in all situations, analytics at 5×5 c/o naturalstattrick.com.
Who I like
Big players show up in big games and the Leafs need Auston Matthews ($9,200) to show up tonight. He’s been generating lots of shots, but has four points in six games — three of which came in game two. He’s still averaging 16.7 FPPG, a slight decrease from his 18.3 in the regular season.
William Nylander ($6,000) has been great for the Leafs in the playoffs scoring seven points in six games. He’s averaging 13.4 FPPG, a slight uptick from his 10.6 in the regular season.
Someone who …

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Author: Zach Laing / The Leafs Nation